Inflation set to fall below 3%, Investors Prepare

Investors are gearing up for a significant data release on Tuesday, as they await the unveiling of January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a crucial metric that will influence the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming interest rate decisions.

According to estimates from Bloomberg, the inflation report is anticipated to reveal a headline inflation rate of 2.9% for January, marking a notable deceleration from December’s 3.4% annual gain. If these projections hold true, it would signify the lowest annual inflation rate observed in approximately three years and the first time the figure has fallen below 3% since March 2021.

In terms of monthly changes, consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.2% in January, aligning with December’s recently revised monthly increase. On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices are forecasted to have increased by 3.7% year-over-year, reflecting a slowdown from December’s 3.9% annual rise. Monthly core prices are anticipated to have climbed by 0.3%, mirroring the prior month’s figures.

Bank of America (BofA) analysts attribute the persistent core inflation to elevated shelter prices and fluctuations in categories such as used cars, transportation services, and lodging away from home. Despite this, BofA anticipates moderation in shelter inflation throughout the year, driven by disinflation in asking rent inflation.

Within the core inflation segment, BofA expects services to be bolstered by larger price increases in transportation services and lodging away from home, fuelled by robust demand for travel. Conversely, used car prices are projected to experience a slight decrease of approximately 1.8% on a month-over-month basis.

The looming question for investors is whether the Federal Reserve will opt to adjust interest rates in response to the inflationary trends. While annual inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, has fallen below that rate on a six-month annualised basis, prompting speculation of potential rate cuts.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tempered expectations of an imminent rate cut, dismissing the likelihood of such action at the central bank’s recent meeting. Market sentiments reflect a nearly 85% chance of unchanged rates in March, with expectations for a rate cut in May hovering around 60%.

Bank of America economists align with the expectation of a rate cut in June, contingent upon data in line with their projections, which would bolster the Fed’s confidence in addressing inflationary concerns. Fed officials have echoed Powell’s cautious stance, emphasising the need for sufficient evidence of sustained inflationary trends before considering rate adjustments.

As investors await the CPI data and interpret its implications for Fed policy, the trajectory of inflation and the central bank’s response remain pivotal factors shaping market dynamics in the months ahead.