Threat of recession waning – survey

According to a recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the likelihood of a recession in the United States has decreased over the past three months. The Business Conditions Survey revealed that 53% of respondents expect a recession this year, down from 64% in October. Additionally, only 3% of participants believed the US is already in a recession.

This increase in business confidence is attributed to a decrease in price pressures in the US economy. The survey, which included the opinions of 60 NABE members, offers a reprieve from the wave of pessimism that swept Wall Street at the end of last year. Many banks, such as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, had predicted a stock crash of more than 20% in 2023 due to anticipated interest-rate increases and a recession.

The survey suggests that those surveyed are still closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions in the coming months. The Fed has recently sought to soften its hawkish language and has lifted benchmark borrowing costs by over 400 basis points since March. However, it has not indicated any plans for rates to move lower in the near future.

Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel has urged the Fed to immediately halt any further rate increases in order to protect the economy. The decrease in the expectation of a recession is a positive sign for the US economy, and it will be important to continue monitoring the situation and the Federal Reserve’s actions moving forward.

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