MENA’s economy set to grow 5.5% in 2022

A World Bank analysis projects that the Middle East and North African region’s GDP will expand by 5.5 percent this year, which would be its fastest rate since 2016. However, growth in the same region is anticipated to decline to 3.5 percent in 2023.

The Gulf Cooperation Council nations are predicted to increase by 6.9 percent in 2022 as oil prices climb, before levelling off at 3.7 percent the following year as hydrocarbon prices decline.

According to the research, Saudi Arabia will be the main force behind GCC growth in 2022, with an expected 8.3 percent growth rate. In the GCC area, growth in non-oil industries is also anticipated in the upcoming year, ranging from 2.6% in Oman to 7.7% in Kuwait.

Economists predicted a mild 4.1 percent increase among emerging oil exporters this year, with Iraq topping the pack with a growth rate of 8.2 percent. However, due to political unrest, a lack of water and electricity, and other factors, Iraq’s non-oil gross domestic product growth is predicted to be less than 3% between 2022 and 2024.

By the end of this year, Algeria’s GDP is expected to expand by 3.7 percent, thanks in part to European initiatives to diversify their energy supply. Iran’s anticipated growth, in contrast, was estimated to be only 2.9% due to international economic sanctions.

The growth of the emerging oil exporters is expected to be 2.7 percent on average in 2023 as the hydrocarbon high declines. According to the survey, developing oil importers are anticipated to rise by 4.5 percent in 2022, with Egypt leading the way with a growth of 6.6 percent as of the conclusion of its fiscal year in June.

Egypt’s GDP is projected to decline dramatically to 4.8 percent in 2023 despite the nation making gains in the tourism, telecom, and gas export sectors. According to the analysis, Jordan’s GDP growth would slightly slow to 2.1 percent in 2022 and may reach 2.3 percent the following year, helped by tourism.

The oil exporting nations, with the exception of Egypt and Lebanon, are predicted to increase by just 0.7 percent this year and a tad more than 2.5 percent in 2023. In 2022, six of the 18 MENA nations will have returned to their pre-pandemic GDP growth levels, and three more will catch up the following year, according to the analysis.

The MENA region’s current account is anticipated to increase significantly in 2022, rising from barely 4.5 percent of GDP the previous year to 10.5 percent. According to the World Bank estimate, the region’s fiscal balance will improve to 1.9 percent of GDP from a 3.5 percent deficit in 2021.

The current account of Gulf countries alone is anticipated to increase to 17.2%% in 2022 and 14.6 percent the following year, while their fiscal balance will reach 5.3% in 2022, up from a deficit of 2.2% the previous year.