Because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year, Europe’s need for alternative sustainable energy sources has grown even more urgent. The European Union’s primary supplier of natural gas, oil, and coal is Russia, and the war has made supplies uncertain and driven up prices.
The BNEF analysis presents two potential energy scenarios for Europe: a “Economic Transition Scenario” and a more ambitious “Net Zero Scenario.”
By 2050, Europe’s use of fossil fuels will have decreased by 28% in the Economic Transition Scenario. The biggest contributor is the decline in coal use, while the rise of electric vehicles is helping to reduce oil demand by 30% by 2050.
During the same time span, however, natural gas demand declines by only 5%. This is owing to the “limited economic alternatives” to gas for heating buildings, BNEF says. It also anticipates that any reductions in gas use will level out after 2030.
In this scenario, fossil fuels will continue to make up 60% of Europe’s energy mix by 2050, a minor decrease from 69 percent in 2022.
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